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You wouldn’t know it by following the news from the United States, where daily COVID-19 cases have fallen by 80 percent over the last 10 weeks — and where they continue to fall.

You wouldn’t know it by following the news from the United Kingdom, either. There, daily cases have plummeted 90 percent over the same period.

And you certainly wouldn’t know it by following the news from Israel, where normal life has all but resumed.

But despite the rosy view from a few select countries, the total number of COVID-19 cases worldwide is actually rising right now. In fact, after peaking on Jan. 11 and dropping by half over the next month — the first overall decline of the entire pandemic — global cases reversed course in mid-February and began to rebound.

Since then, new daily cases have climbed nearly 20 percent overall. In France, they’re up more than 30 percent. In Brazil, they’re up more than 50 percent. In Italy, they’re up more than 80 percent. In India, they’re up more than 110 percent.

The dreaded “fourth wave,” in other words, has arrived — even if it hasn’t arrived in the U.S.

These divergent trajectories offer up a troubling preview of the next phase of the pandemic, and they should trouble everyone, including residents of countries like the U.S., the U.K. and Israel, where the virus finally seems to be retreating.

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