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BERLIN: Germany’s conservative CDU looked set to win an election in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein on Sunday, a boost to the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, which was ousted from national government in federal elections last year.

An exit poll by infratest dimap put the Christian Democrats (CDU) at 43% of votes, up 11 percentage points from when Schleswig-Holstein last held a state election in 2017.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats, the main party in Germany’s “traffic light” coalition with the environmentalist Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP), meanwhile slumped to 15.5%.

The exit poll put the Greens and FDP, which in Schleswig-Holstein have been in coalition with the CDU since 2017, at 17% and 7% respectively, meaning the conservatives may be able to form a government there with only one of the two parties.

The CDU’s stronger standing in the state than at the national level – where it is polling at 26% following its worst ever federal election result in September – is partly down to the popularity of state premier Daniel Guenther, analysts say.

Another term for 48-year-old Guenther, who polls show is the most popular state premier in Germany, could strengthen the role of moderates within the CDU, in a counterpoint to their more right-wing leader Friedrich Merz, CDU sources told Reuters.

The South Schleswig Party (SSW), which represents the ethnic Danish minority in the state, won 6% of the votes while both the far-right AfD and far-left Linke parties did not reach the 5% of votes necessary to secure seats in the state’s parliament.

More significant will be elections next week in Germany’s most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), where the SPD and CDU are running neck and neck.

A loss by the conservatives in NRW, after losing in March in the tiny western state of Saarland, would be a significant blow to the party.

It would also make it easier for Scholz’s SPD-Greens-FDP coalition to pass laws in the upper house of the national parliament, where regional elections help to determine the distribution of votes.

Regional issues such as the cost of childcare or property purchase taxes typically dominate such state elections.

But national issues are also in particular focus this year given the tectonic shift in German foreign, energy and security policy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

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